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Water FractalTier 2
at Grand Archive Regionals-リージョナル- HASUYA
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 43.9% | -3.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.9% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 28.6% | -12.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.9% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -3.0 |
| Water Genbu | 6.3% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 48.3% | -1.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.2% | -21.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 23.6% | -19.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.2% | +9.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.6% | +9.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 51.6% | +1.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 40.1% | -6.3 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.2% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 37.7% | -6.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.0% | +3.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.4% | +18.6 |
| Water Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Lost in Thought, Fractal of Intrusion, Turbo Charge. Losers more often ran: Song of Frost, Chill to the Bone, Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa.
Banned
Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -0.71 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.71 | 5 | 0 | 2 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.57 | 0 | 4 | 3 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.57 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.57 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.57 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.57 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Art of War | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Halt | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Reprogram | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana Resonance | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Regal Expulsion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |